Project Kilo
Project Dante
Project Hogar
Project Load
The issue. Ayala Corporation wanted to understand the Philippine logistics industry and where growth would actually come from. Macro demand was not the question. The question was which segments were growing, which players could reach them, and which constraints, ports, roads, regulation, capacity, would decide the winner.
The questions.
What does the logistics value chain look like, and where does the industry structure concentrate power?
Which segments are growing fastest, and which are merely busy?
What market reach and capability do the major players in each segment actually have?
The outcome. The industry was read from the macro down to the constraint: infrastructure limits, service providers, carriers, and the regulatory frame. Segments were separated. Customer and provider pain points were named. Players were profiled across the chain, and the services growing faster than the market were isolated from the ones riding it. Value and profitability drivers were pulled out for the capital decision. On that work, Ayala bought 49 percent of Zalora, Entrego, and Air21. The study is now the M&A roadmap for consolidating the industry.
The issue. Asia Climate Partners, out of Singapore, wanted a stake in Royale Cold Storage. The expansion plan was the story. The diligence had to ask whether regional demand for pallet positions would show up at the rate the plan required, and whether the target’s own supply would be there to meet it.
The questions.
What is the business case for the stake, once the warehouse is priced as capacity rather than as a logistics theme?
How does the expansion plan compare with the cold-storage demand the region is actually going to produce?
Where are the projections solid, and where can the target grow faster than the case assumes?
The outcome. The regional expansion plan was set against growing demand for pallet positions, and against the supply Royale expected to bring on. The two curves were not assumed to meet. Asia Climate Partners could then quantify how much of the plan was sustainable, and reset what the stake was worth. Valuation expectations moved with the capacity, not with the narrative.
The issue. AyalaLand Logistics Holdings needed supply and demand for warehousing, by segment and by geography, across eight major regional markets. Cold storage and dry warehousing do not clear at the same rate. A nationwide figure hides the shortage, and hides the glut.
The questions.
What is demand and supply for warehousing in each major region, once the market is segmented rather than summed?
Which type of warehousing will be in greatest demand from here, and which regions will feel it first?
The outcome. All warehouse types were surveyed nationwide, then broken on the ground across the eight markets. Available supply was counted against demand, so the gap was local. Growth areas were named from that gap, not from a national forecast. AyalaLand Logistics left with a point of view on which formats will be most in demand, and where.
The issue. Mitsubishi Corporation wanted commercial diligence on Magsaysay, an end-to-end logistics provider with significant marine assets. The fleet was the asset. It was also the risk. A ship that runs the wrong inter-island pattern does not become valuable because the group is integrated.
The questions.
Who competes in each segment, and which of those fights actually matters to this target?
How does Philippine logistics grow from here, and how much of that growth reaches marine assets?
How are the ships optimized, and where are cargo yields being left on the route?
How competitive is Magsaysay in each segment it claims, once the peers are named?
The outcome. Competitors were examined segment by segment and performance was benchmarked, so “integrated” stopped being a substitute for position. Demand for logistics was tied to the drivers of Philippine growth, not to a sector slide. Inter-island shipping patterns were mapped in enough detail to show where the marine assets should be pointed. Competitiveness was scored against the players in each segment. Mitsubishi could then price the commercial risks and the opportunities separately. The valuation was revised to match.
Project Skipper
The issue. Metro Pacific Investments was buying Basic Logistics and its affiliates under an asset purchase agreement. The assets were the deal. The question was whether they could meet demand now, and whether they could be expanded without the buyer discovering the constraint after the close.
The questions.
What is the business case for the purchase, once the fleet is valued on what it can carry rather than on what the group hopes to build?
Where can Metro Pacific expand and scale the target, and where does current capacity say no?
The outcome. Strengths and weaknesses were read against the opportunities and threats in land-based logistics, so the competitive environment was a constraint, not a backdrop. Capability was then set against customer demand, on current capacity and on the capacity the expansion would have to add. Metro Pacific could see what the assets were worth as they stood, and what had to be true before scale was more than a head-office plan.